Pilkada DKI: Tanpa Data Kita Buta

In God we trust, all others must bring data.
(W. Edwards Deming)

Pilkada DKI sudah selesai dan kita sudah tahu pemenangnya, setidaknya versi Quick Count. Selamat buat yang menang, salut untuk pengabdian yang kalah selama ini. Saya tidak akan menulis kenapa Ahok kalah. Biarlah itu menjadi urusan pengamat. Yang akan saya tulis adalah mengapa menurut saya ilmuwan politik Indonesia baru saja melewatkan kesempatan emas untuk memahami secara lebih mendalam karakteristik pemilih Indonesia pada umumnya dan Jakarta pada khususnya.

Saya akan beri dua contoh ketidakmampuan kita menjawab secara memuaskan dua pertanyaan penting, dan apa yang bisa kita lakukan di masa depan untuk dapat menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan tersebut secara lebih baik.

I. Kita Belum Bisa Menjawab Secara Meyakinkan Kenapa Orang Memilih Ahok atau Anies

Sudah banyak laporan survei tentang alasan-alasan orang memilih Ahok dan Anies. Sayangnya, survei-survei itu menerima begitu saja jawaban responden dan tidak membedakan dua kemungkinan skenario:

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Maundy Thursday and the Love that Hurts

Maundy Thursday is always the most touching of the Three Holy Days for me. Why? Because it presents Jesus in its most human form.

On Good Friday Jesus was tortured and crucified. There’s virtually nothing He could do about that. The Romans already captured him. Whatever He said, they would probably kill Him anyway. And on Easter He rose from the death. That’s good news. No more suffering.

But on Maundy Thursday were the real temptations. He knew the time was near and He had to leave the people He loved. Can you imagine the feeling? You love a person, so much, and you realize that that night is your last night with them? It must be hurtful.

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In a Quiet Field

There were no bells tolling
Nor birds chirping in the air
Even the winds didn’t blow
And the grass stood still

There were one or two flowers
But it was definitely not a tulips garden
Let alone parks in the movies that are stunningly beautiful

But there were stars
A lot of them above our heads
The moon was there too
Staring at us with the warmth of a mother

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To One Who’s Hurt

To one who’s hurt
May you remember that
although the past shapes us
it doesn’t define us
It can hurt
But every new day is an opportunity to heal
And I promise, there will be always more new days than your past

To one who’s hurt
May you know that everyone is somebody’s someone
You are somebody’s someone
You might not know who that somebody is
But he or she is immensely grateful that you two ever crossed paths
You are meaningful to them
You are their world

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The Voyage

Someday, my friend
Echoes of your past would get quiet
Princes and princesses you dreamed about
They would cease to exist
All gone and quiet

Mores and memories appeal you no more
Endless possibilities, that’s what you now seek
Long you for a new adventure, a new journey
Limitless, endearing, and magical
In that voyage, amidst all the storms and sunshines, you whisper “I am ready”
Now the past ends
And the future begins

(Jakarta, 9.12.2016)